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Looking Back And Looking Ahead : July 21, 2008

On July 21, 2008, in Market News, by Tyler Ford | Comments

CPI soared in June 2008 on high oil prices and rising food costsMortgage rates soared last week as mortgage markets experienced a 4-day freefall. 

By the end of the trading week, conforming mortgage rates had jumped by as much as 0.500 percent.

The spike in rates can’t be pinned on any one factor, but 3 contributing factors include:

  1. The lingering impact of high energy prices on inflation
  2. The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar
  3. A rally in the financial sector, marking a return to risk-taking

Inflation and a weak dollar both devalue mortgage repayments, a well-chronicled relationship on this Web site.  In short, when mortgage bond investors find that their repayments are worth less, they demand a higher return.  This causes mortgage rates to rise.

But, it wasn’t inflation or the dollar that caused the majority of the damage to mortgage rates last week — it was the rally in the financial sector.

Rates had edged higher Tuesday on the inflation data but it wasn’t until Wednesday’s morning stronger-than-expected announcement from banking leader Well Fargo that mortgage rates really started to spike. 

In its quarterly report, Wells Fargo said that its balance sheet was strong and that it planned to increase shareholder dividends.  The rosy announcement sparked a strong demand for all things financial and — by day’s end — the sector scored a 12.3 percent gain on Wall Street. 

It was the largest one-day gain in financial stocks ever.

Wells Fargo's strong earnings release sparked a broader rally in financials that helped push mortgage rates higherThen, following Wednesday’s rally, financials picked up additional momentum and ended up closing out the week higher by 21 percent. 

Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers, a large chunk of the money that fueled the rally came out from the mortgage bond market. 

As investors looked for cash to buy financial stocks, many chose to sell mortgage bond holdings, creating excess supply.  More supply leads prices lower and, in the mortgage world, when prices fall, rates go up. 

Because mortgage bond prices fell a lot last week, mortgage rates rose by a lot.

This week, expect momentum to be The Big Story.  There is little data beyond Thursday and Friday’s Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales, respectively, and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index.  And only a few members of the Fed will be speaking in public.

The one bright spot last week was falling oil prices. 

After an 11 percent decline, Americans are waking up this morning to lower gas prices.  This is anti-inflationary and could help tug mortgage rates lower.

How Mortgage Rates Benefit From 3 Months Of Worsening Employment Data

On April 4, 2008, in Mortgage Educational Information, by Tyler Ford | Comments

March's monthly loss of 80,000 jobs is the largest since March 2003 and follows January and February's losses of 76,000 each.

For the third month in a row, the economy shed jobs, suggesting that the U.S. is in a recession.

March’s monthly loss of 80,000 jobs is the largest since March 2003 and follows January and February’s losses of 76,000 each. 

The weak data is edging mortgage rates lower as we head into the weekend. 

The connection between poor jobs data and today’s falling mortgage rates is a little bit strained, but worth discussing.  It all comes down to expectations.

Prior to today, there was an expectation that the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts would over-ignite the economy sometime this Summer.  The Fed has cut 3 percent from the benchmark rate since September 2007.

Meanwhile, consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy and people can’t spend if they don’t earn.

So, after today’s report showing fewer workers (and falling confidence levels to boot), the largest component of the economy is expected to sag for a while. 

This lack of spending should offset the cumulative impact of the Fed’s rate cuts and lowers the expectation for runaway inflation later this year.

Now for the connection: If inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, it’s the absence of inflation that causes them to fall. 

And that’s precisely what we’re seeing today.

Recent Comments

  • Tyler Ford: Great job Todd!
  • Tyler Ford: Seems as through the real estate market is picking up and home prices are stabilizing.
  • Gail Richards: Thanks Todd! More Great Information! Thanks for being on top of everything…your the best! Gail
  • admin: Hey Todd, Can’t wait to pick a winner!
  • steve kargel: Thank you Todd for sending us your updates and especially for insights like the Eller annual economic...

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