Every year, around this time, the University of Arizona presents their Economic Forecast Luncheon. Every year for the past 20 (or more) Marshall Vest, Director of the Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of Management, spins the yarn of information. I have had the priviledge of attending for the past 12 years and cherish the contact and information.
Some years, Mr. Vest has actually been seen cracking a smile; some years maybe a sigh. This year he was making a few jokes attempting and ease the sting from what he was presenting. Taking copious notes, and presenting them here in my own words, is a summary of what I heard him say:
- Tucson is locked in the teeth of a great recession and will lag behind the rest of the country, but we are coming around
- Arizona has been the hardest hit state ranking 50th in job growth, 4th worst in residential foreclosures, and 2nd worst with respect to home-owner equity
- The State budget has a $2 BILLION shortfall and there is no way the state can cut enough to balance; therefore the only option is to raise taxes ALOT (i.e., the State is technically “insolvent”). The “system” is clearly broken and our way of life is at stake.
The key to Arizona’s recovery is JOBS. The questions are – what will it take? how long will it take? He projects negative job growth through 2010 with unemployment peaking (locally) at 10.5%. Jobs growth is expected in 2011 and 2012 at a rate of 3%-5% with unemployment dropping to a respectible 6% in 2014 (5 years from now!).
Click here to view his presentation in it’s entirety.
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Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) is a mortgage lender’s insurance policy against highly-leveraged homeowners. It’s typically required when homeowner equity is less than 20 percent at the time of closing.
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