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The Half-Truth Of The Headline “1 In 8 U.S. Homes Are Late Paying Or In Foreclosure”

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USA Today ran this 2008 Foreclosures By State heatmap last week, reminding us of a simple truth: Headline statistics can be misleading.

According to data compiled by RealtyTrac, 1 in 8 U.S. homes were in various stages of default or delinquency at the end of 2008.  This is a fact and it was widely reported by the press. 

However, as the heatmap plainly shows, in stripping out just 35 of the nation’s 3,232 counties, we can decrease the number of foreclosures nationally by half

In other words, yes, 1 in 8 U.S. homes face mortgage trouble.  In your neighborhood, though, the ratio is likely much, much lower.  Real estate is a local phenomenon.  National statistics rarely apply.

Unfortunately Arizona has a high foreclosure rate compared to the rest of the country.

Foreclosure Rates Are Falling (Despite What You See In The Headlines)

Foreclosures fell in June 2008 by 3 percent from May 2008According to RealtyTrac, the rate of foreclosures across the U.S. is slowing.  Versus May, June foreclosures fell at a 3 percent clip.

25 states showed improvement month-over-month, led by many of the same areas that had fueled foreclosure activity in 2007. 

A sampling of RealtyTrac’s data includes:

  • California : Foreclosures down 4.54 percent
  • Georgia : Foreclosures down 14.91 percent
  • Arizona : Foreclosures down 0.07 percent
  • Michigan : Foreclosures down 6.00 percent
  • Illinois : Foreclosures down 15.65 percent

However, the improving nature of the data is not what is making news this morning.  Instead, the press is reporting that foreclosures are up by half since last year and that bank seizures have tripled.

And while the annual data may be accurate, that doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily relevant to home buyers and home sellers across the country.

This is because people buying and selling homes don’t usually boast an “annual” mentality; when someone’s an active participant in the real estate market, the mentality is “right now”.

In other words, annual data fits an economist, but month-to-month data fits you.

June’s foreclosure data may be the start of a trend, or it may be a blip.  It’s really too soon to tell.  But the RealtyTrac data reinforces what real estate professionals already know — that markets all over the country are showing signs of life.

Brought to you by Tyler Ford and Todd Abelson of the Tucson Mortgage Team.

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How Picking Up The Telephone Can Reduce The National Foreclosure Rate

Call for help on your mortgage BEFORE missing a mortgage payment

“Foreclosure” is the legal process by which a bank repossesses a home from a borrower and, according to RealtyTrac, 1 out of every 100 homes were in some stage of the foreclosure process in 2007. 

This figure is astounding because foreclosure is expensive to both homeowners and banks.  Both parties have an interest in avoiding foreclosure but the process has to start with the homeowner — banks are just too big to start it themselves.

Every mortgage statement has a 1-800 phone number on it.  If you’re about to fall behind on your mortgage payments, make a phone call first.  When you call the toll-free number, a customer service representative talk about your repayment options, or help you design a work-out plan to get your mortgage back to current.

Banks know that more than 80 percent of all foreclosures result from one of the following:

  • Job loss/reduction in salary
  • Medical issues
  • Divorce
  • Death

These are life events that draw compassion from banks.  They understand that bad things can happen to people. 

However, the other 20 percent of foreclosures are the result of an inability to sell, an unwillingness to pay, and budget mismanagement.  These reasons are not as acceptable to the banks.

But when a homeowner fails to forewarn his lender of a missed payment, the lender assumes the worst.  It puts the homeowner in the 20 percent category. This makes a work-out plan much less likely and can quickly lead to foreclosure and a loss of the home.

Lenders want to avoid foreclosure as much as homeowners do.  If you’re a homeowner and you’re facing trouble with your mortgage payment, give your lender a call in advance and try to work it out.

If you never call, you can’t possibly get help.

(Image courtesy: Countrywide Financial)

Recent Comments

  • Tyler Ford: Great job Todd!
  • Tyler Ford: Seems as through the real estate market is picking up and home prices are stabilizing.
  • Gail Richards: Thanks Todd! More Great Information! Thanks for being on top of everything…your the best! Gail
  • admin: Hey Todd, Can’t wait to pick a winner!
  • steve kargel: Thank you Todd for sending us your updates and especially for insights like the Eller annual economic...

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