This may be one of the most important speeches Mr. Bernanke has ever given because the Fed has been criticized for lacking leadership and vision during these very tough times. The markets will be looking and hoping for a CLEAR, UNIFIED plan to help the economy get back on it’s feet.

The contents of the speech are GUARANTEED to move the markets, so if you like what you see rate-wise I suggest you LOCK IN now. Gamblers take note!

Call Todd Abelson & Tyler Ford at Sunstreet Mortgage in Tucson, AZ for all your mortgage needs (520) 331-LEND

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Arizona are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

Then, the Federal Reserve made a second series of statements after its scheduled meeting last Tuesday, causing mortgage rates to plunge again.  This started the Refi Boom’s second wave.

Because of the surge in refinance activity, mortgage lenders are “backed up”; initial file reviews are taking up to 12 business days in some cases. 

Typically, this process takes 2 days.

Underwriting delays are problem for refinancing Americans because when a mortgage rate is locked, it’s most often locked for 30 calendar days — the standard Rate Lock Agreement contract length.  If the mortgage doesn’t close within those 30 days, the applicant must either pay an “extension fee” to preserve the lock, or risk losing the rate altogether.

30 days may seem like a long time, but let’s consider a few external variables:

• December 24, 25, and 26 plus January 1 and 2 are lost to holiday
• December 27, 28 plus January 3, 4, 10, 11, 17, and 18 are lost to weekends
• January 19 is lost to federal holiday
• 3 days are lost to the Right To Cancel clause

This leaves 13 days to get from Application to Closing, and of those 13 days, 12 of them are being spent on the initial review.  A 30-day rate lock, in other words, may be an inadequate agreement with some mortgage lenders.  A 45-day agreement may be required instead.

Typically, 45-day rate locks carry higher rates or higher fees, versus their 30-day counterparts.  This amounts to a “tax” on borrowers, a result of the nation’s rush to refinance en masse.

As always, the best way to preserve a rate lock is to be as responsive as possible to the process.  Return paperwork when asked, schedule appraisals immediately, and arrange to signing closing paperwork on the first available day.

With mortgage rates low, application volume — and underwriting turntimes — should remain high into early-2009.

With the exception of Sunstreet Mortgage. We have in-housing underwriting and can get things done quickly so give Tyler Ford or Todd Abelson a call at 520-331-LEND (5363).

This is a counter-intuitive development because increases to the Fed Funds Rate are typically associated with periods of rapid economic expansion. 

Lately, we’ve seen anything but. 

Witness:

• High levels of unemployment
• Reduced consumer spending
• Falling consumer confidence

Despite the downbeat news, though, multiple Fed members are taking a hard line on inflation, adding that a strong dollar support the economy and help to offset high oil prices. 

A rate hike could help accomplish that goal.

If the Federal Reserve votes to raise the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate will rise in tandem.  Prime Rate is the basis of interest rates for credit cards and home equity credit lines.  Holders of each debt type, therefore, would face higher monthly payments.

Mortgage rates, by contrast, would be expected to fall, but how the market would actually react to a rate hike is anyone’s guess.

The Federal Reserve meets 8 times annually.  Its next meeting is a two-day affair beginning June 24.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

For the third month in a row, the economy shed jobs, suggesting that the U.S. is in a recession.

March’s monthly loss of 80,000 jobs is the largest since March 2003 and follows January and February’s losses of 76,000 each. 

The weak data is edging mortgage rates lower as we head into the weekend. 

The connection between poor jobs data and today’s falling mortgage rates is a little bit strained, but worth discussing.  It all comes down to expectations.

Prior to today, there was an expectation that the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts would over-ignite the economy sometime this Summer.  The Fed has cut 3 percent from the benchmark rate since September 2007.

Meanwhile, consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy and people can’t spend if they don’t earn.

So, after today’s report showing fewer workers (and falling confidence levels to boot), the largest component of the economy is expected to sag for a while. 

This lack of spending should offset the cumulative impact of the Fed’s rate cuts and lowers the expectation for runaway inflation later this year.

Now for the connection: If inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, it’s the absence of inflation that causes them to fall. 

And that’s precisely what we’re seeing today.