Recession or Inflation? Even Fed Members Don’t Know For Sure.

March 5th, 2008 - - filed in Federal Reserve

With Friday's jobs report looming, mortgage markets are especially skittish about whether the economy is in a recession, or facing inflation.

With Friday’s jobs report looming, mortgage markets are especially skittish about whether the economy is in a recession, or facing inflation.

Four Fed speakers Tuesday did little to quell the debate:

9:00 A.M.: Fed Chairman Bernanke stayed on message that foreclosures and falling home values are dragging down the economy.
10:00 A.M.: Fed Vice Chairman Kohn said that banks will “face challenges” but will not fail en masse.
1:00 P.M.: Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin said that deflation is more concerning to him than inflation
1:00 P.M.: Dallas Fed President Fisher said fighting inflation is more important than fighting recession.

Four speeches, four different perspectives.

The speakers’ mixed messages confused market participants and, as a result, mortgage rates varied wildly from hour to hour.

The confusion was so great that several mortgage lenders had to shut down their rate lock desks on three separate occasions Tuesday to re-price rates to the “new” market.

That’s a highly unusual occurrence and the market’s volatility underscored the uneasiness exiting in mortgage markets lately. Without a clear picture of where the economy is headed, investors are left to guess (and they’re not very sure of themselves).

Friday’s job report may add some clarity, but until Friday comes, consider locking a mortgage rate if you see one you like – it probably won’t stick around for very long.