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Don’t Rush To Refinance That ARM — It May Be Adjusting To 3 Percent Or Lower

On March 10, 2010, in Interest Rates, by admin | Comments

Pending ARM Adjustment March 2010

If your mortgage is set to adjust this year, the smart move may be to let it. Today’s conforming mortgages are adjusting lower than ever before — as low as 3 percent.  It may not be what you expected when you signed for your ARM several years ago.

The reason why ARMs are adjusting lower is because of how they’re made.

When conforming adjustable-rate mortgages adjust, they adjust according to a pre-determined formula. The formula is the sum of a constant and a variable.  The constant is usually 2.25 percent and the variable is a daily-changing interest rate called LIBOR.

The formula looks like this:

New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate.  It’s an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. In Fall 2008, when Lehman Brothers fell and sparked a global banking fear, LIBOR spiked as the risk of inter-bank borrowing jumped.

Since then, however, LIBOR is down.

Normalcy is returning to banking and the timing couldn’t be better for Tucson homeowners with ARMs. 15 months ago, a homeowner’s ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent.  Today, that same ARM falls to just above 3.

As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust. Or, because fixed rates are still near 5 percent, converting that ARM to a long-term fixed-rate product might make sense, too.  The decision is a balance between how low do you want your payment, and how long might you live in your home.

The longer you stay, the more it might make sense to switch to fixed-rate, even though ARM rates are so low.

If you’ve got an adjusting ARM, give us a call at 520-331-LEND (5363).  Once March ends and the Fed withdraws its mortgage market support, mortgage rates may rise and the fixed-rate option may be gone.

How You Can Get The Most Accurate, Real-Time Mortgage Rate Quotes Available

On February 23, 2010, in Interest Rates, by admin | Comments

Mortgage rates are expired before they hit the papers

You can’t get your mortgage rates from the newspaper. Last week proved it.  Again.

Friday morning, headlines in Arizona and around the country read that mortgage rates were down 0.04 percent, on average, since the week prior.

A sampling of said headlines includes:

  • US Mortgage Rates Drop For 2nd Straight Week (Reuters)
  • Mortgage Rates On 30-year US Loans Fall To 4.93% (Business Week)
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls Farther Below 5% (Marketwatch)

The story behind the headline was sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, am industry-wide mortgage rate poll of more than 100 lenders.  The PMMS has reported mortgage rate data to markets since 1971 and is the largest of its kind.

Unfortunately, Tucson rate shoppers can’t rely on it.

See, unlike governments and private-sector firms, when consumers are in need mortgage rate information, they need the information delivered in real-time; for making decisions on-the-spot.  Consumers need to know what rates are doing right now.

The Freddie Mac survey can’t offer that.

According to Freddie Mac, the survey’s methodology is to collect mortgage rates from lenders between Monday and Wednesday and to publish that data Thursday morning.  The survey results are an average of all reported mortgage rates. The problem is that mortgage rates change all day, every day.  The PMMS results are skewed, therefore, by methodology.

And, meanwhile, the issue was compounded last week because mortgage rates shot higher Wednesday afternoon — after the survey had “closed”.  The market deterioration ran into Thursday, too — again, unable to be captured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS.

Although the newspapers reported mortgage rates down last week, they weren’t.  Conforming mortgage rates were higher by at least 1/8 percent, or roughly $11 per $100,000 borrowed per month.  In some cases, rates were up by even more.

Newspapers and websites can give a lot of good information, but pricing is far too fluid to rely on a reporter. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing in real-time, make sure you’re talking to a loan officer.  Otherwise, you may just be getting yesterday’s news.

Best way is to just give Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford  a call at 520-331-LEND (5363).

Mortgage Rates Spike On The Federal Reserve’s January 2010 Meeting Minutes

On February 18, 2010, in Interest Rates, by admin | Comments

FOMC January 2010 MinutesMortgage markets reeled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 26-27, 2010 meeting. Mortgage rates in Arizona are now at their highest levels since the start of the year.

The Fed Minutes is a follow-up document, delivered 3 weeks after an official FOMC meeting. It’s a companion piece to the post-meeting press release, detailing the debates and discussions that shaped our central bankers’ policy decisions.

The Minutes is a terrific look into the Fed’s collective mind and, yesterday, Wall Street didn’t like what it saw.  Specifically, the report disclosed that:

  1. The Fed plans to break support for mortgage markets after March 31, 2010
  2. Raising the Fed Funds Rate will be a key part of the Fed’s strategy to tighten monetary policy
  3. The fundamentals behind consumer spending strengthened modestly

Furthermore, the Fed Minutes said that there is a growing risk of “higher medium-term inflation”. Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates.

Overall, the Fed’s economic optimism appeared stronger after its January meeting as compared to its December one.  A stronger economy should lead to better job growth and higher home prices throughout 2010.

Mortgage rates were up yesterday but they remain historically low. And many analysts think that after March 31, 2010, rates will rise even more.  Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the near-term, or know you’ll need a new mortgage, consider moving up your time frame.

Every 1/8 percent makes a difference in your household budget.

How interest rates move and why they’re going up!

On February 11, 2010, in Interest Rates, Videos / YouTube, by Todd Abelson | Comments

Brought to you by Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford of Sunstreet Mortgage – Tucson, AZ
Courtesy of Mortgage Success Source, Mortgage Market Guide, Nick Mallory and Dustin Hughes.

This is by far, the single best explanation of HOW mortgage interest rates are determined and WHY they are going up. 7 minutes of EXCELLENT information – do yourself a favor, listen and share this with anyone considering buy a home or refinancing an existing mortgage.

Call Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford at Sunstreet Mortgage in Tucson, Arizona for all your mortgage needs! 520-331-LEND

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 8, 2010

On February 8, 2010, in Interest Rates, by admin | Comments

Non-Farm Payrolls Net New Jobs Feb 2008-Jan 2010Mortgage markets improved last week on domestic jobs data and international banking concerns. The news triggered buying in the bond market and, as a result, conventional, FHA and VA mortgage rates in Arizona improved for the 4th consecutive week.

Mortgage rates are now at a 6-week low but probably shouldn’t be.  It underscores just how important global events can be to U.S. mortgage markets.

For example, corporate earnings continue to improve and key elements of the economy are strengthening.  Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges this.  In most circumstances, that would be a boon for the stock markets and bond markets would suffer, including mortgage bonds.

Last week, that wasn’t the case.

Early in the week, as (1) China tightened its monetary policy, (2) Greece did little to quell lingering default fears, and (3) Spain raised its deficit forecasts, global investors sought to reduce their collective risk exposure. For safety of principal, many sold some of their more aggressive positions and moved the cash proceeds into the U.S. bond market — which includes mortgage bonds.

On Wall Street, this type of trading pattern is called a “flight-to-quality”.  Because mortgage bonds are backed by U.S. government entities, the debt is considered to be ultra-safe.  Last week’s extra demand for bonds helped to push prices up and mortgage rates down.

And that was before Friday’s weak jobs report. Although the Unemployment Rate fell to 9.7%, the government reported a net loss of 98,000 jobs last month and this, too, helped mortgage rates tick lower.

This week, we’ll hope for momentum to continue.

There’s very little domestic news to move rates this week so keep an eye on the global market for similar stories like what we saw last week.  Or, if you’re not sure what to look for, just give me a call or send me an email and I’ll be happy to watch the markets and mortgage rates for you.Post

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  • Tyler Ford: Great job Todd!
  • Tyler Ford: Seems as through the real estate market is picking up and home prices are stabilizing.
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  • admin: Hey Todd, Can’t wait to pick a winner!
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